If Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, the United States’ relationship with Mexico would be transformed; in addition, the economy could have certain modifications. We tell you more about it.
The day arrived. The United States elections take place this Tuesday and the world’s attention is focused on a possible re-election of Donald Trump or on the return to the Presidency of the Democratic Party with Joe Biden.
World powers are watching the election closely because of the influence of US policy. But also developing countries … and perhaps the most important in this case is Mexico.
It is not only its neighbor to the south but one of the main economic relationships it has. For Mexico, it means the largest commercial partner in the world, which makes this election still relevant because the economy is one of the points that will be transformed if Joe Biden is elected as the next president of the United States.
In general, what can Mexico expect if Biden wins the US elections? To delve into the subject, we interviewed Roberto Carlos Hernández, who has a degree in International Relations, a doctor in Political Philosophy, and a professor at the FES Acatlán of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
The four years spent with Trump at the helm of the US have represented a complex chapter, as his attitude is difficult to foresee. On several occasions, the president has reacted abruptly to various events, especially in commercial and immigration matters.
If Biden wins, a bilateral relationship with greater institutionality and certainty is expected to return.
“We would no longer see what we practically got used to in the past four years: these outbursts, these tantrums, this bad treatment by Trump towards Mexico and, in general, towards the whole world (…). The relationship with the United States would run, as has been the trend for many decades, through much more institutional and discretionary channels, not as these four years have been when one day he gets up in a bad mood and then lashes out, ”Hernández explained.
The UNAM academic pointed out that we can expect from Biden some encouraging actions in immigration policy, such as maintaining the DACA program for so-called dreamers; the end of raids on schools, churches, hospitals, and workplaces; and stopping the separation of migrant families, something that has characterized the Trump administration.
However, Carlos Hernández warned, the fact that Democrats also know how to deport migrants should not be ignored, and in fact, the government of Barack Obama did it more than that of Trump.
“It must be borne in mind that, despite the mistreatment and rude ways, it was not the Trump administration that expelled the most migrants from the United States, it is still the Obama administration that, on average, had the most expulsions of migrants and many of them Mexican.
“In rough terms, on average, the administrations of President Obama, in which Vice President Biden participated, expelled more than 380 thousand migrants a year; not even in the best year of the Trump administration in this sense, they were approached. There in my opinion We shouldn’t raise the bells to the flight because let’s say that the Democrats also know how to expel countrymen and they have done it, ”he explained.
More consistent economic proposal
For the doctor in Political Philosophy, Joe Biden’s project in economic matters is more viable and would also mean a benefit for Mexico.
“Biden has a recovery plan that in principle is a countercyclical policy; In other words, it is a policy of expansionary economic strategy of the budget, of spending, it handles a figure of a stimulus to the economy of 2 trillion dollars. Those two trillion of stimulus to the economy are going to focus above all on a new generation industrial program, ”Hernández stressed.
This new generation industrial program refers to promoting already known sectors, such as the automotive and telecommunications sectors, but with the detail, that clean energy would be used.
“‘And why does that benefit us?’ Joe Biden is going to maintain the restrictions, he is no longer going to escalate the commercial economic tug of war with China, but he is going to maintain the restrictions, among other things because some products from China are very polluting, specifically steel, for example.
“That opens up another chunk of the US market to Mexico. With so many tariff impositions on Chinese products, Mexico has managed to accommodate. So I think we can win there,” he said.
More eyes on the labor chapter of the USMCA
The UNAM academic indicated that, if Biden wins, the Democrats would pay much more attention to one of the most controversial points of the new USMCA trade agreement: Chapter 23 on labor matters.
“Who are the ones that imposed the greatest restrictions on the famous chapter 23 of the USMCA, the labor chapter? Obviously, it was the Democratic legislators ”, he highlighted.
“Democrats would be more attentive to Mexico not violating the content of Chapter 23. There they would pay more attention, more magnifying glass to this, this can even be articulated with one of the tax proposals that Biden’s team has: they are proposing to establish a fine tax to the corporations that subcontract in other parts of the world, that is to say that they send to Malaysia or here to Mexico parts of a product that they will later sell again in the United States, ”Hernández explained.
The FES Acatlán professor added that historically Democrats have been the most reluctant to free trade agreements, as in the case of NAFTA, which was negotiated by a Republican government despite resistance from the Democratic front. This continues to be replicated to this day since the party for which Biden is running is the one that has the most relations with labor unions and will now pay special attention to the labor chapter of the T-MEC as the USMCA is known in Mexico
‘The return to multilateralism’
Trump has had a reluctant stance towards world forums, as in the case of the WHO, an organization from which he decided to cut funding; or in the case of the Paris Agreement, which the United States left in the course of the current government.
With Biden, just as the relationship of respect with Mexico would return, multilateral politics would return worldwide.
“A multilateral position of the United States directly benefits Mexico due to a very specific circumstance: Mexico is a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, it will be there these two years, I am sure that with negotiators from the Biden administration it will be much easier for Mexico to build consensus in the Security Council that is oriented towards the isolationist policy of President Trump ”, commented the academic.
Do I veto assault weapons?
An interesting point, but which could be the furthest of all since it needs to pass filters outside and inside the US Congress, is that of a promise from Biden: the return of the veto on purchases of assault weapons.
“As on two or three occasions, Biden has shown the possibility of imposing a veto on the purchase of assault weapons, that veto that prevailed until 2004. I say that this would have an impact in Mexico for the simple reason of the transfer of illegal weapons from the United States to our country, ”he said.
In this category of assault weapons fall the Barret 50 caliber, large capacity rifles that can pass through armored vehicles and even shoot down helicopters.
“Biden made it possible to impose these restrictions. But everyone knows that the National Rifle Association is a very active organization with a lot of lobbying power. So this is nothing more than a commitment, a promise from Biden, but that will not necessarily translate into automaticity, ”concluded Roberto Carlos Hernández.